EDITORIAL
China and India hold world in balance
International Mining
The dramatic rise of China and India presents one of the gravest threats-and greatest opportunities-facing the world today, says the Worldwatch Institute in its State of the World 2006 report. The choices these countries make in the next few years will lead the world either towards a future beset by growing ecological and political instability-or down a development path based on efficient technologies and better stewardship of resources.
"Rising demand for energy, food, and raw materials by 2.5 billion Chinese and Indians is already having ripple effects worldwide," says Worldwatch President Christopher Flavin. "Meanwhile, record-shattering consumption levels in the US and Europe leave little room for this projected Asian growth." US per-capita carbon dioxide emissions are six times the Chinese level and 20 times the Indian level. If China and India were to consume resources and produce pollution at the current US per-capita level, it would require two planet Earths just to sustain their two economies.
"We were encouraged to find that a growing number of opinion leaders in China and India now recognize that the resource-intensive model for economic growth can't work in the 21st century," Flavin said. "Already, China's world-leading solar industry provides water heating for 35 million buildings, and India's pioneering use of rainwater harvesting brings clean water to tens of thousands of homes. China and India are positioned to leapfrog today's industrial powers and become world leaders in sustainable energy and agriculture within a decade." In 2005, China alone used 26% of the world's steel and 47% of the cement. Though their per-capita resource consumption is still low, with their huge populations China and India are joining the US and Europe as ecological superpowers whose demands on the world's ecosystems will vastly outstrip those of other countries,according to the report.
The chemical spill on the Songhua River in northern China in November 2005, which forced a four-day closure of the water system of the city of Harbin, illustrated the huge environmental challenges facing Asia today. The spill led to the resignation of China's top environmental official, Xie Zhenhua, who authored the foreword to State of the World 2006 shortly before the disaster. Other challenges facing China and India include: China has only 8% of the world's fresh water to meet the needs of 22% of the world's people. In India, urban water demand is expected to double-and industrial demand to triple-by 2025. India's use of oil has doubled since 1992, while China went from near self-sufficiency in the mid-1990s to the world's second largest oil importer in 2004. Chinese and Indian oil companies are now seeking oil in countries such as Sudan and Venezuela-and both have just started to build what are slated to be two of the largest automobile industries in the world. China and India have large coal-dominated energy systems - coal provides more than two-thirds of China's energy and half of India's. Both countries are therefore central to future efforts to slow global climate change: China is already the world's second largest emitter of climate-altering carbon dioxide, while India ranks fourth.
Such trends have a number of influential Chinese and Indians questioning whether their countries are on the right path. Zjeng Bijian, Chair of China Economic Reform, is quoted in the book calling for "a new path of industrialization based on technology, low consumption of resources, low environmental pollution, and the optimal allocation of human resources." Sunita Narain of India's Centre for Science and Environment writes in the book's foreword, "The South-India, China, and all their neighbours-has no choice but to reinvent the development trajectory."
"The overburden has changed its characteristics during the time we have operated the pit," says Hagen Schimke, Plant Manager at Vattenfall Nochten. "We have entered an area where the density of the material is between 1.6 - 1.8 and the material is much more abrasive.
The report notes that China and India are already benefiting from South-South sharing of ideas, from biofuels to bus rapid transit systems. Recent commitments by both nations to develop large wind power and solar energy industries are likely to make a host of new technologies affordable for poor countries. Their early successful efforts to employ new approaches include: In 2005, both nations committed to accelerating the development of new energy sources. India will seek to increase renewable energy's share of its power from 5 to 20-25%, while China's ambitious renewable energy law stands a good chance of jumpstarting wind power, biofuels, and other new energy options.
In India, where 43% of the annual rain and snowfall fails to reach rivers and aquifers, NGOs have championed water harvesting, using simple technologies that capture and store water before it can flow away. In Chennai, the country's fourth largest city, some 70,000 buildings harvest rainwater. New laws in 2004 gave Chinese non-governmental organizations (NGOs) stronger legal standing to participate in policy decision-making. There are now more than 2,000 environmental NGOs in China-a sector that barely existed as recently as the early 1990s.
The report calls for broader cooperation between China, India, Europe, and the US to develop new energy systems, maximize resource efficiency, and continue recent progress towards participatory decision-making in China and India. Educational and professional exchanges should also be stepped up. Additionally, it is urgent that China and India be invited into key international bodies such as the G-8 and the International Energy Agency.
The report highlights a number of interesting and notable trends, including:
  • " India already has the fourth largest wind power industry (p. 11), while China and India are the third and fourth largest ethanol producers, respectively. (p. 64) Both countries have vast land areas that contain a large dispersed and diverse portfolio of renewable energy sources that are attracting foreign and domestic investment.
  • " The US, Europe, Japan, India, and China together claim 75 percent of the Earth's "biocapacity," effectively leaving 25% for the rest of the world.
  • " The average person in China has an ecological footprint of 1.6 global ha, and, in India, 0.8 global ha. In contrast, the average person in the US has an ecological footprint of 9.7 ha, and that footprint grew by 21% between 1992 and 2002.
    • Biofuels
  • " Ethanol and biodiesel together provided 2% of global transportation fuels in 2004. Global production of ethanol has more than doubled since 2000, while production of biodiesel has expanded nearly threefold. Oil production has increased only 7% since 2000.
  • " Only about 10% of the biofuels produced around the world is sold internationally, and Brazil accounts for about half of this.
  • " The world could theoretically harvest enough biomass to satisfy the total anticipated global demand for transportation fuels by 2050.
  • " The biggest producers-Brazil, the US, the EU, and China-all plan to more than double their biofuels production within the next 15 years.
    • Mercury's Global Reach
  • " Coal combustion may provide as much as two-thirds of the more than 2,000 t/y of anthropogenic emissions of mercury to the atmosphere.
  • " 80% of the mercury used globally is in developing countries, particularly in East Asia, with 1,032 t, and South Asia, with 634 t. China and India remain responsible for an estimated 50% of global mercury demand.
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